First Major Pacific Hurricane of the Season – already weakening

Fascinating happenings this hurricane season. First, the season kicks off early with a subtropical storm, followed by an early-season major hurricane in the Pacific! Hurricane Aletta was upgraded to a major hurricane on 6/8 as a category 4 hurricane. So, what’s going on this morning? As of 0300 MDT (0600 EDT) here is what’s going on…

Aletta is currently located at 16.2N 112.7W, 495 mi SSW of Baja, CA and 210 mi SSW of Socorro Island. Current max sustained winds of 110 mph, moving WNW at 6 mph with a minimum central pressure of 967 MB. Aletta started degrading overnight, and the eye has started to break down. The eye is not currently visible on infrared satellite pictures. Vertical wind shear is increasing and Aletta is moving over cooler waters. Over the next two days, she should rapidly decrease in strength. Within the next 72 hours, she will turn into a remnant low, and that should be all that we hear about Aletta.

What about the Atlantic? Good news – right now, there’s nothing in the Atlantic.

Is Aletta concerning? Well, typically, we do not see Pacific hurricanes this early. June 26 is the average of when we start to see Pacific hurricanes, so Aletta was 2 and a 1/2 weeks earlier than average. While that seems a little scary to some, according to Jonathan Erdman, a meteorologist on Weather.com, early Pacific hurricanes have now occurred four times this decade (out of 8 years) and “9 times since 1970, according to NOAA.”

So, this may not necessarily be evidence of global warming or weather changes but it could be. From 1970 to 2018, if it has happened 9 times, but four of those are in the last 10 years, that does seem concerning. Of course, you’d have to look at all sorts of data all over the world, I suspect, making comparisons to other cyclonic storms in other oceans and look at weather patterns and probably factor in what that data predicts backwards for weather patterns never tracked.

However, I will say that it is concerning for the current hurricane season. If the waters are warm enough in the Atlantic AND Pacific to see early storms forming, we could be in for a rough season. On Monday, Tiffany and I will try to write out our predictions for the coming season!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s