Farewell Jose, Eyes on Maria – 9/22 5:00 AM Update

I won’t lie. Friday is an early morning for me. Up at 4:30, leave for work at 5 AM. Even still, my first thought this morning was…”I wonder what the 5 AM forecast will bring??” Perhaps it is an obsession…

Jose is now a post-tropical cyclone. What exactly does that mean? Well, it is basically exactly what it sounds like. A post-tropical cyclone is a former (or retired) tropical cyclone. Specifically, Jose is currently an extra-tropical cyclone, one of the two classifications, meaning that the storm is still frontal and retains some tropical storm force winds, or even hurricane force winds. I’ll write a separate post at another time about post-tropical cyclones and the different classifications. So, what does that do for the forecast? Well, nothing for now. Tropical storm warning is still in effect for southern New England today, and Jose remains nearly stalled, moving W at just barely 2 MPH. So, we cannot say goodbye to Jose just yet, but he’s no longer Maria’s dance partner. He’s slowly staggering off the dance floor, to the bathroom, where he’ll likely pass out. It should take about 3-5 days, but he will spin out to nothing.

Maria is currently at 21.6N 70.6W, 35 miles ENE of Grand Turk. Torrential rains and high winds are starting to fade away for Hispaniola. Max sustained winds maintained at 125 MPH overnight and she’s moving NW at 7mph. Minimum central pressure is at 959 MB. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos as well as Dominican Republic. She should make a slight change and begin moving more NNW later today and continue that track tomorrow. While she remains a Cat 3 right now, she is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours. After that, she should be over waters that were cooled by her former beau, Jose, which should cause significant weakening.

Rain forecast from Maria includes 8 to 16 inches, maybe as much as 20 inches for Turks and Caicos; an additional 3 to 6 inches for Puerto Rico (maximum storm
total 40 inches); and an additional 3-8 inches of rain for Dominican Republic.

Reports for Puerto Rico, at this point, are very bad. somewhere between 90% and 95% of the island have seen significant damage, including flooding, roof loss, and building destruction. 100% of the island is without power, much of the island is without cell and telephone service. Be on the lookout for how you can donate to help PR, if that is your desire.


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